Curse

Urcscumug · Jun 08, 2011, 07:15 PM // 19:15

This particular discussion first appeared in another thread, but I will thank you if you don't start on that subject again, and instead keep to this one. Because it's a good topic and very good points have been made.

It's been said that, the longer you farm, the better your chances are of getting drops, and the better of getting one particular drop.

Is it true or false? I've been arguing pro and con with a couple of other users. Links to the relevant posts, so you can catch up with the original arguments if you want: [1], [2], [3].

To save you some time, here's the gist of it:

Quote:

Originally Posted by Xiaquin

Obviously, the more you farm, the more likely you'll get a drop.[..]One pass at trying to get an item from a chest has almost no chance of succeeding. One hundred will be higher probability.

Xeno put it in cold hard math:

Quote:

Originally Posted by Xenomortis

Let X denote the probability of a drop from a single event.[..] Then the probability of getting no drops over the course of N events is: (1-X)^N [..] And so the probability of getting at least one drop is 1-(1-X)^N.

I stand corrected, you are both right (and that's a very useful formula). The probability does increase as the number of attempts goes up. (I haven't taken Xeno on his word, btw, in case anybody's wondering, I ran the numbers myself, using a couple of different methods. Plus I wrote a program and ran some simulations. It checks out.)

But I'd like to point out that we still have two problems:

1) The smaller X is, the bigger N has to be to get decent probabilities. The formula for the attempts (N) needed to raise an item's original probability (x) to probability (p) is: N = log 1-x (1-p). See the table below for several items. It's a lot of attempts for many of them. And you never get 100%, only come very close to it.

2) Probabilities are theoretical. Even if the theory tells you that if you open 7800 gifts you have 99% chances of getting Yakkington, in practice it's perfectly possible to try 10,000 times and not get a single one, just as it's perfectly possible to try 5 times and get 5 of them.

Without further ado, here's a table with the number of attempts needed for certain probabilities of success and certain items. "Chance" column taken from wiki "rate of drop" tables.

How to use: you want 90% chances of getting Gwen, who has 0.033% chances of dropping, you have to open 6,976 Gifts.

But: it does NOT mean that if you open 54 Coffers you get 50% of them to wield Armbraces. You get 50% chances of getting ONE Armbrace.

Item	From	Chance	50%	90%	99%	99.99%
Gwen	Gift of Traveler	0.033%	2,100	6,976	13,952	27,905
Brown Rabbit	Gift of Traveler	0.047%	1,474	4,897	9,795	19,591
Yakkington	Gift of Traveler	0.060%	1,154	3,836	7,672	15,345
Armbrace	Coffer of Whispers	1.26%	54	181	363	726
Mallyx	Coffer of Whispers	0.76%	90	301	603	1,207
Medal of Honor	Royal Gift	12.006%	5	18	36	72
Elite tome	Zaishen Chest	2.21%	31	103	206	412
Regular tome	Zaishen Chest	9.83%	6	22	44	89
Celestial Rabbit	Lunar Fortune	0.61%	113	376	752	1,505

Take all values with a grain of salt, for probability's sake. And even those probabilities have a margin of error to begin with. Bottom line: you're nuts if you use this table for anything serious.

*lemming* · Jun 08, 2011, 07:17 PM // 19:17

Isn't this just common sense?

Essence Snow · Jun 08, 2011, 07:26 PM // 19:26

^^ agree with the above

Ofc over the course of time your chances will increase across all instances...but each instance's chance will remain the same.

Chrissie Quickdraw · Jun 08, 2011, 07:31 PM // 19:31

RNG loot is RNG

say it with me, repeat it a few times, and let it sink in if you didn't know allready! :
"Previous results DO NOT influence future outcome."

Urcscumug · Jun 08, 2011, 07:32 PM // 19:32

Perhaps it is common sense, but before I did the math myself I wasn't so sure.

And if people see some actual numbers maybe it will give them some perspective and cause them to re-evaluate their options. Randomness and probability are tough things to get your head around. See the Monty Hall problem.

So, if you've been opening gifts like crazy hoping for a mini Yakkington -- how far along are you?

Just kidding, but seriously, see point (2) above.

Lortext · Jun 08, 2011, 09:18 PM // 21:18

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chrissie Quickdraw

say it with me, repeat it a few times, and let it sink in if you didn't know allready! :
"Previous results DO NOT influence future outcome."

This is why it is incorrect to say you chance to get something increases. It never increases. It is always the same X% chance to drop every time. The math is just to remind you that if you opened 27,905 gifts and didn't get a mini Gwen that you are really unlucky, possibly cursed.

Tharg · Jun 08, 2011, 09:33 PM // 21:33

I never heard of the Monty Hall problem so thank you for the link. I love statistics and think (thought) that I was pretty good at it. But I can't for the life of me follow the reasoning behind the explanation. Maybe I should have a few drinks and then try again...

neiloss · Jun 08, 2011, 09:35 PM // 21:35

In fact, if you have a lot of money to invest, it's a good thing to make a lot of coffers to get ambrace that gives more money that what you had invest at the beginning?

Lortext · Jun 08, 2011, 09:43 PM // 21:43

Quote:

Originally Posted by neiloss

In fact, if you have a lot of money to invest, it's a good thing to make a lot of coffers to get ambrace that gives more money that what you had invest at the beginning?

No. You would need to get an armbrace in under 15 coffer openings. The above table suggests that to even get a 50/50 shot you need to open 54.

Pugs Not Drugs · Jun 08, 2011, 09:47 PM // 21:47

Quote:

Originally Posted by neiloss

In fact, if you have a lot of money to invest, it's a good thing to make a lot of coffers to get ambrace that gives more money that what you had invest at the beginning?

i dont think so, because 15 coffers is equal in value to 1 ambrace, and the probability of getting an ambrace from opening 15 coffers is only around 15.825%, according to my math.

however, this doesnt take in account the other rewards from coffers. in order to incorporate those i would need a list of them and their values, but i still think your better off selling the coffers

Pugs Not Drugs · Jun 08, 2011, 09:54 PM // 21:54

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tharg

I never heard of the Monty Hall problem so thank you for the link. I love statistics and think (thought) that I was pretty good at it. But I can't for the life of me follow the reasoning behind the explanation. Maybe I should have a few drinks and then try again...

it helps to think of it with more than 3 doors. imagine if there were 1 million doors, and only one had a car, with the rest containing goats. you stand in front of the doors and pick one, hoping for the car. the host then goes down the row of doors, and all the other doors except one, leaving two doors closed. the ones he opens all have goats. logically, which door do you think would be more likely to contain the prize? the door you chose when their were a million doors to chose from, or the door you choose when there are only two to pick from

thats how my ninth grade statistics teacher explained it to me (although he was more eloquent) and it made alot more sense.

**cosyfiep** · Jun 08, 2011, 10:07 PM // 22:07

its pure chance....I have tried on one account to get a boss to drop their green, tried and tried.....never got it. my 2nd account was in that area (quest or something)...happened to kill the boss ONCE and got the green .....
(nic gifts--opened well over 3 stacks-not all at the same time...last time opened ONE stack, on number 150 I got a mini bunny--first mini from the gifts, I have seen others get it on the first try....chance pure chance).
You can do the statistics all you want, but it just says that you might possibly get a drop. (or it can say that you will maybe not get a drop--)

Xenomortis · Jun 08, 2011, 10:13 PM // 22:13

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tharg

I never heard of the Monty Hall problem so thank you for the link. I love statistics and think (thought) that I was pretty good at it. But I can't for the life of me follow the reasoning behind the explanation. Maybe I should have a few drinks and then try again...

Setup:
There are three doors, two have goats behind them, one has a car behind it. You pick a door and if there's a car behind it, you win the car. The twist is that after making your choice, one door that has a goat behind it is removed and you are asked if you want to swap to the remaining door.
Is it better to swap, stay with your current door, or does it not matter?
Note that the removed door always has a goat behind it.

So:
The probability of picking a door with a car behind it at the start is 1/3 and the probability of getting a goat is 2/3.
Let's assume I pick a door with a goat. Then when one door is removed, the remaining door has the car I want behind it. So swapping doors makes me win, sticking with my current door means I lose.
If I pick the door with the car behind it at the start then clearly swapping is detrimental. This happens 1/3 of the time.

2/3 > 1/3 so you should swap doors.

By swapping you bet that your initial choice was wrong. By not swapping you bet that you were correct.

Edit:
Another way of thinking about it:
If you choose not to swap, the chances of you winning are exactly the same as they were at the start. You picked a door that had a 1/3 chance of having a car behind it and that does not change until you see what is behind it. However, after one door is removed from the problem, you know that whatever is not behind your door is behind that one and so the probability of the car being behind that door is 1-1/3 = 2/3.

Kunder · Jun 08, 2011, 10:14 PM // 22:14

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chrissie Quickdraw

RNG loot is RNG

say it with me, repeat it a few times, and let it sink in if you didn't know allready! :
"Previous results DO NOT influence future outcome."

Technically it does, since all random number generators are actually pseudo random number generators. The important point is that predicting what the future outcome would be is nigh-impossible.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Tharg

I never heard of the Monty Hall problem so thank you for the link. I love statistics and think (thought) that I was pretty good at it. But I can't for the life of me follow the reasoning behind the explanation. Maybe I should have a few drinks and then try again...

Easiest way is to just enumerate the options.

If you pick the right one in the first place, and switch, you get the wrong one. This happens 33% of the time.

If you pick the wrong one in the first place and switch, you get the right one (because the OTHER wrong one is always ruled out as it was revealed already). This happens 66% of the time.

So if you don't switch you always have a 33% chance, if you switch you have 66% chance

MithranArkanere · Jun 08, 2011, 10:25 PM // 22:25

It's always just about luck.
The human brain is rigged to look for patterns, even if there are none. So many people will think that there's a way to increase the chances to have something drop instead something else when there's none.

I've head lots of silly stories about timing with server time to prompt a certain drop and whatnot, but such things will never work.

Showtime · Jun 08, 2011, 10:43 PM // 22:43

I have never scored anything nice from gifts. It's luck or bad luck.

2 stacks of royal gifts and no mini.

Red rocks are the best nic can do for me.

Dozen characters worth of minis and since yr 1 and no greens. 1 gold 2 years later on a 2nd account. 6th year gift = tahlkora. I have 3 more and I am considering selling all. But I'm due right?

Nothing from zchest at r3 and that's not counting more than that before the update.

I have scored from other chests and drops, but if you farm long enough...

animal fighter · Jun 08, 2011, 11:21 PM // 23:21

Quote:

Originally Posted by lemming

Isn't this just common sense?

not everyone is as smart as you, most people haven't even won a cape trim like you have so that just about sums it up.

Hobbs · Jun 09, 2011, 01:36 AM // 01:36

Quote:

Originally Posted by animal fighter

not everyone is as smart as you, most people haven't even won a cape trim like you have so that just about sums it up.

You don't have to be good at the game, or smart to see that the more times you play a random number generator the higher the probability that the number you want comes out. And that just because an item has an x% chance of dropped doesn't mean if you try get it 100/x times you're certain to get it.

bena · Jun 09, 2011, 02:11 AM // 02:11

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chrissie Quickdraw

RNG loot is RNG

say it with me, repeat it a few times, and let it sink in if you didn't know allready! :
"Previous results DO NOT influence future outcome."

correct, for real life odds such as dice rolling, or coin flips etc.

this is code. computers cant generate 'random' when a computer is asked to give a random number there's certain code applied to some preprogrammed seeds, and it spits back what it's coded to do. certain types of rng code are pretty simple to understand... and predict! computers are incapable of random. everything is coded and happens for a reason, some exceptions would be when circuits start breaking down or overheating. the rng just gets really complex

The point is... that RNG for computers is coded. the game developers can alter that code to suit things however they want.

This was publicly acknowledged by a game developer when it came to light that a bug with player ids at char creation altered the loot rate for those specific players. I dont remember the game name but i remember seeing the acknowledgement coming directly from the devs of that game. a very simple random generator was used in some fps to generate where bullets would go on a 'spray n pray' hackers figured it out, built some code to automatically aim their gun where the bullet would 'randomly' go and they would get headshots everytime if they wanted.

Now whats to prevent a game dev from trying to keep the market unsaturated while keeping players hooked by specifically coding in loot rate changes? the best way is to have high odds to drop high value loot, but then as time progresses and the player is fully hooked into 'farming' severely decrease the loot rate, but not so much that its obvious.

Im not saying guild wars does this, nor is it realistically provable. it's also not realistically unprovable. your assertion that previous results dont influence future outcomes is without proof. did you write the code? have you seen the code?

All im doing is showing you that not only is it possible, its happened in the past by accident. Logically is something has happened once, that proves that the situation is in the realm of possibility. furthermore there is a motive for game devs to purposefully code it in to manipulate the gamer's addiction without over saturating the market.

random is random is correct. but guild wars isnt flipping coins or rolling dice. therefore its quite correct to say that RNG is not necessarily random. most of the time perhaps, but not always.

rng is coded. coded by people who can alter the code.

Pray they don't alter it any further.

Chthon · Jun 09, 2011, 02:20 AM // 02:20

Quote:

Originally Posted by Kunder

Technically it does, since all random number generators are actually pseudo random number generators. The important point is that predicting what the future outcome would be is nigh-impossible.

The synch experiments have shown that GW's PRNG for loot generation is not very well armored at all. It's seeded with zone-in time, and seems to be used exclusively for loot generation. If you really wanted to, it would not be hard to create a bunch of instances with duplicate (potential) loot, farm one instance to see if the loot was worthwhile, then cash in all the duplicates when you finally got lucky. This is largely prevented by the fact that no single piece of loot (excluding old school things with incredibly unlikely mods) in GW is worth enough to justify the trouble. In short: it's not that you can't game the system; it's that the system isn't worth gaming.